The issue of who succeeds the incumbent Imo State Governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha in 2019 as he vacates office has dominated the Imo political discourse for too long now.
However, it was Okorocha himself who ignited the fire by raising the issue about who takes over from him as early as 2016.
Because of the apprehension of who succeeds him in office after his two terms of eight years, the Governor had literally wrote his on constitution on the criteria and qualities on who would be the next Governor of Imo State.
At a time, he said that the new Imo State Governor must not be above 50 years of age. In the next fora he denies the statement. After a few months later, he would affirm the earlier denied story.
Again the Governor will say he would not dwell on Imo zoning formula in picking his successor. At another gathering the Governor will maintain that he will shock Imo people with the name of his successor.
But what is the definition of a successor? “A person or thing that immediately follows another in holding an office or title”. So, what we are talking here is about the next Governor of Imo State after Governor Rochas Okorocha.
As to whether Okorocha will vacate office on May 29, 2019, is as certain as tomorrow follows today. But what is under contention is; who would be that fellow? Will he or she be produced as Governor through the votes of Imo electorate or by Okorocha’s fiat? That is, even after Okorocha may have selected any of his trusted Aides or relatives to run under a political party he will chose between now and 2019.
Therefore, when people talk about Okorocha’s successor, they put it as if whoever Okorocha anoints from any political party as his candidate has already assumed office inside Government House Owerri, as the Sixth Civilian Governor of Imo State since its creation in 1976.
Whoever Okorocha adopts tomorrow as his choice candidate has the onerous task of facing Imo electorate.
The same Imo electorate, who against all odds, in 2011, defied Peoples Democratic Party PDP, power of incumbency both at the State and National levels, with Chief Ikedi Ohakim sitting as the Governor, and installed Owelle Rochas Okorocha as Governor, under the platform of the All Progressive Grand Alliance APGA, against all permutations, but only to the mutual and spiritual agreement of the “People’s Army” represented by the poor Artisans, Pensioners, Civil Servants, Students, Youth Organizations, Diaspora Imolites etc.
Therefore, the question that begs for answer now is; has anything changed in Imo State, as regards the 2011 scenario, with Okorocha as the reference point?
Has Okorocha retained that relationship with the electorate, which made him the man to beat in 2011, to the extent that he could walk on the streets of Owerri then, challenging the incumbent Governor to dare him?
Has Okorocha that proverbial goodwill, to seat at the cosy Imo Government House and point at a fellow as him in whom he is well-pleased to take over from him, and the Imo electorate will agree in unison and march out to organize the foot soldiers of yester years they formed in 2011 that protected Okorocha’s votes at all nooks and crannies of Imo State?
Will those widows and down trodden who donated their last kobo to the course of Okorocha’s project, ever repeat that suicidal mission again in 2019 in order to install Okorocha’s successor?
If I am to say, Okorocha has squandered the goodwill that ushered him into Imo Government House Owerri in 2011 under the blaze of tumultuous followers, who dotted behind him unsolicited. The entire scenario has changed astronomically that it may not be easy as presumed by those holding power now in Imo State.
Although as an incumbent with enormous power, Okorocha would try everything possible to plant a successor. But it will not be a tea party. It will be tough both for Okorocha and those challenging him. And in the end, if measures are not taken to play the game by the rules, both human and political casualties would be recorded.
It has always been not that easy for out-going Governors to produce their chosen successors. And when the moderate and less ambitions ones among them take stock of what it would consume to foist their chosen candidates at all cost, they back out.
In 2003, President Obasanjo lured South West Governors into committing political suicide and AD lost all the States to PDP, except only Ahmed Tinubu standing in Lagos State.
However, when it was plotted to rig him out, President Obasanjo counted the loss the Nation would incure in removing Tinubu, and therefore the President had to budge to popular demand.
And it was that singular act that ironically brought President Mohammadu Buhari into power today. Because had Asiwaju Tinubu been dislodged then, even though he won, he would not have been there in 2015 to pilot Buhari’s return to power.
Today, Tinubu is one of the strongest politicians in the Federation. He has since 2003grown into a political Iroko in Yoruba land.
In 2015, President Goodluck Jonathan had all it could take to retain power. But when he saw the raging storm from afar, he had no alternative than to throw in the towel for his own future and that of Nigeria.
In Akwa Ibom State in 2007, now Senator Godswill Akpabio was never former Governor Victor Atta’s chosen candidate to succeed him. Even though he was one of his Commissioners.
Infact the renowned Architect wanted to install his son inlaw against the zoning system in Akwa State. But the entire Leaders in Akwa Ibom rose against Atta, and the old man scurried away to save himself.
Today, Akwa Ibom State is the better for it. The State is one of the fastest growing economies in Nigeria, with peace reigning, with thousands of Tourists trooping into the State every week.
In neighbouring Ebonyi State, the former Governor, Chief Elechi did not want his Deputy, Umahi to succeed him. But the PDP and the electorate said otherwise. Today Governor Umahi has changed the face of Ebonyi State that you would wonder where he is getting the funds to develop the State from.
In Enugu State, former Governor Sullivan Chime wanted to go to the Senate, and at the same time produce a successor. But the Leaders of the party PDP, and Enugu State told him he cannot take the two positions at the same time.
It is either he produces his successor and drop the Senatorial dream, or vice versa. Chime chose to produce a successor (Ugwuanyi) and allowed Senator Ike Ikweremadu to return to the Senate based on the zoning formula in Enugu State.
If you go to Enugu State now, there is no road in the State capital that is not tarred. My last visit to Nsukka beheld a new town with world class facilities, including standard paved roads with RCC construction company working day and night.
However I foresee these mentioned scenarios in other States playing out in Imo in 2019. I predict a situation where Imo people deciding otherwise than what their out-going Governor would want them to think.
Because of Okorocha’s constant comment on who succeeds him, and for starting the argument too early, he inadvertently drew the attention of Imo populace to the pertinent matter, and also so earlier in deed. Therefore, now, Imo people are fixated on who becomes Okorocha’s successor, coupled with the Governor’s latest actions which seem to have tugged at the heart of the docile electorate who have now sworn that even if they do not care who takes over from who, but that of Okorocha must be keenly looked into.
Unfortunately, Okorocha certainly is confused on who his chosen successor would be, at least before knowing how to sale the fellow to Imo electorate.
The Governor recently had believed that since he was on his way out he could take those tough decisions that may have cost him his second term if taken earlier. But unfortunately, Okorocha still has a date with Imo electorate because he would like to leave behind a trusted ally to watch his back and his past in office.
From all indications, Okorocha’s recent treatment of Imolites did not show any sign of empathy and respect.
Much as he has the right as the Leader to take decisions onbehalf of the Imo people, but as a politician, he also has the right to avoid the draconian decisions that will sentence the masses to poverty.
The demolition of markets, though good, but wrongly timed, without existing alternatives for the now destitute Traders, is a big problem that will dog Okorocha as he tries to hoist a successor on Imo people. Of course, the angry Traders will seek for their pound of flesh on whoever Okorocha points at as his candidate in 2019.
Keke Riders are waiting for the whistle to blow. Pensioners with their children and relatives are another set of angry Mob waiting in the wings for the judgment Day. The Orji and Nekede Mechanics are warming up for the D-day. Vehicle dealers at Naze, who were dislodged at the peak of Christmas sales last year are awake. New and old Market Traders are another volunteered soldiers baying for political pay back.
The Catholics, whose Primate, was “insulted” by forcibly renaming the Assumpta Cathedral Street after a Muslim without consultation from Bishop Obinna only hope that the elections are today.
Shell Camp quarters owners surely will not let the opportunity to get at Okorocha in 2019 pass them by.
Those who complain of “Land grabbing” issues are sleepless, calling on God to give them a chance to register their political franchise in 2019.
Those whose Houses were demolished, but termed “Shanty” by Government and therefore not entitled to compensation have kept their Permanent Voters Cards (PVC) as the only weapon they have to register their presence in 2019 election.
Government Appointees, who were dropped from office by Okorocha in ignominy have not yet forgiven even if they forget.
All these Army of disgruntled elements and others are pilled up, waiting for Okorocha’s long-awaited anointed candidate in 2019 Imo Governorship election to emerge.
And the climax of it all will depend on how the Governor handles the important issue of zoning formula in Imo State Governorship seat agreed in principle among the three zones.
Any attempt to move the seat back to Orlu zone, after Achike Udenwa’s previous eight years in office, coupled with Okorocha’s eight, makes it a total of Sixteen years that Orlu zone has held Governorship power in 20 years of Nigerian latest Democracy in Imo State.
Your guess is as good as mine, what the other two zones; Okigwe and Owerri will do on voting day. Forget the numerical strength of Orlu zone. Imo people are no fools and know what is called equity and justice among three individuals sharing one mango fruit.
From 1999 to 2007, Chief Achike Udenwa was Governor of Imo State. He was speculating on who his successor would be until the day arrived very late.
In the end, he could not plant his choice candidate, and his political party, the Peoples Democratic Party PDP, helped in producing Chief Ikedi Ohakim of then Peoples Progressive Alliance, PPA, since Udenwa was confused.
For Okorocha and his dreams of producing a successor, the real colour of those he calls his trusted Aides will appear clearly the day he Okorocha, as the out-going Governor of Imo State, picks one among his numerous to be adopted by others as his chosen candidate. Then the Governor will realize that winning a Governorship election is a big battle but leaving your own hand-picked successor is a more bigger problem.
