By onwuasoanya fcc jones
There is nothing in the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria that forbids Governor Owelle Rochas Okorocha from contesting the presidency of Nigeria. Okorocha is as qualified as all the people who have presently declared interest in becoming Nigeria’s President. Hence, his aspiration is as legitimate as it is possible. It is legitimate because he is a freeborn Nigerian, who is up to and even older than forty years of age, without any Court granted criminal record, he is a member of a political Party and stands a chance of being sponsored for the presidential election by that Party. It is possible because there is nothing like impossibility in the dictionary of politics. The least fancied aspirants had at other times and in other climes emerged victorious in elections. Before the emergence of President Barack Obama against bookmaker’s permutations, America had as at 1948 recorded what is still one of the biggest electoral upsets in the history of politics.
The emergence of President Harry S. Truman was not seen by any analyst or bookmaker as a possibility. Before his eventual victory in the elections, virtually every prediction brought forward by analysts and opinion pollsters gave victory to Thomas E. Dewey. Such surprises do not come by magic, they are a result of consistent and focused planning and horse trading. While it will be the surprise of the era for Rochas to brush aside heavy weights like General Muhamaddou Buhari, Atiku Abubakar, Governor Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso and even the latest greenhorn, SAM NDA-ISAIAH to emerge the presidential flag bearer of the opposition All Progressives Congress; I insist that it is a possibility. It is this strong belief in this possibility that informs the tilt of this essay which will attempt to analyze the effect of such possibility on President Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election bid in one hand and the succession battle here in Imo State.
It should not have been a tea Party for the incumbent President to defeat Okorocha in the general election, if the unexpected happens and he flies the flag of his Party. Okorocha joined politics earlier than President Goodluck Jonathan, having effectively debuted in 1994, when he won election to represent Ideato North and Ideato South federal constituency in the General Sani Abacha convened Constitutional Reform Conference. He is also well experienced in the Nigerian political game, having contested the Imo governorship election under the PDP in 1999, losing out to Chief Achike Udenwa in the primaries. He was on a good stead to emerge the presidential flag bearer of the defunct All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) in 2003, but was schemed out by his Northern ‘friends’ who did not seem to have enough confidence in his real plans for the Party and the main election. He founded the Action Alliance in 2005, under whose platform he was to contest the 2007 presidential election, but abandoned the Party barely two weeks to the national convention of the Peoples Democratic Party, where he surprised not a few people by emerging first runner up to late President Umoru Musa Yaradua.Twenty years in active and eventful politicking cannot be taken for granted. Presently, he is the Chairman of the sixteen member Progressives Governors Forum- a forum for governors who are members of the All Progressives Congress and a darling of the North.
However, Rochas Okorocha’s emergence as the presidential candidate of the opposition APC will be a safer option for the re-election bid of President Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP in Imo State. In other words, the victory of the Peoples Democratic Party would have been made easier both at the national and State level if Governor Okorocha emerges the presidential candidate of the APC.
At no time has the North been more desperate for power than they are at the moment, and anything that will delay their ascension to the presidency of this nation by any minute will not be tolerated by them. It is not news that the APC was formed for the primary purpose of ensuring that an Hausa Fulani Muslim becomes President of Nigeria. No matter how much Okorocha tries to make himself look like kin to the Hausa, the Hausas are fully aware that he isn’t one of them. They can welcome him as a friend and even an adopted sibling, but they will not allow him to take what belongs to them. They cannot forfeit right to a bloody nyamiri. This may explain the low turn out in Okorocha’s presidential declaration event which was said to have been organized by a non-existent Arewa Grand Coalition in Kaduna. This is notwithstanding the fact that most of those who made up the scanty crowd were said to have been hired from some of the Southern States. The average Hausa Fulani understands what it means to be in power and they are desperate to ensure that one of their own is in Aso Rock.
An average Northerner understands that an Okorocha presidency will keep them from getting the presidency for at least the next eight years. Presented with this option, they will all queue behind President Goodluck Jonathan who is Constitutionally restricted to four more years in power, after which the PDP in keeping to its rotational power arrangement is expected to zone the presidency to the Northern part of Nigeria. With this consideration and the reality that the PDP has a formidable force across the country, the Okorocha presidential ticket is not likely to sell in any of the core Northern States.
In the middle belt region, Okorocha may make a better impact there, considering his longstanding affiliation with the people of Jos in Plateau State, and other middle belt or north central region of the country. However, President Goodluck Jonathan will carry the day in this area because of the sympathy an average middlebelter has for fellow minority tribes. Goodluck Jonathan, being an Ijaw man has an edge over Okorocha who is seen as half Igbo and half Hausa by not a few Nigerians. Of course, the South South is the President’s home base and is therefore a no go area for any other presidential aspirant. In the Southeast where Governor Okorocha hails from, he will not make any reasonable impact, because most of the people will readily cast their votes for President Jonathan to continue than Governor Okorocha whose loyalty to the Igbo nation is seriously in doubt.
The implication of a Rochas Okorocha successful push for the APC presidential ticket in the Imo State governorship race is that it will offer the main opposition in the State; the Peoples Democratic Party an easier sail to Douglas House. Not a few people actually hold the opinion that Governor Okorocha’s presidential project is a subterfuge for him to evade the embarrassing defeat that awaits him in the governorship battle should he seek reelection. This belief is premised on the disappointing and deceitful performance of the Governor in the last three and half years. Okorocha’s failure in meeting up with the hopes of majority of Imolites justifies my rechristening of his rescue slogan as re-skew.
No matter who he bequeaths the APC governorship ticket for Imo State to, the PDP or APGA will have an easy victory over that person. This is partly because of the feeling by most people from this side of the country that the APC is a Northern or Muslim Party, whose leaders have not convincingly dissociated themselves from the carnage being carried out by the Islamic terrorists in the Northeast which has seen not a few of our Igbo siblings displaced and thousands of them killed. What would have worked for whoever the Governor bequeaths the APC governorship ticket to is the outgoing governor’s goodwill. But this is in very poor supply, as most of the people will be happy to dispense with him and his leadership styles. Imo people will resist any attempt to foist an Okorocha stooge on them to continue the queer leadership styles of the outgoing governor.
NIGERIA MUST PREVAIL!
