Recent political developments in the country has shown that the year 2015 may throw up political surprises. Already, it has introduced what I will describe as a new emerging balance of power in the country
This development also raises a fundamental question- where does the unfolding political drama in the country place the Igbo nation, nay the people of Imo State? What are the political implications of the ongoing political alignment and realignment going on in the country for the people of Imo State and Igbos in general?
The recent factionalization of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) last weekend is a clear manifestation that the ruling party is in limbo.
Something tells me that the political octopus called the PDP is on the verge of suffering political disemberment . I will enumerate in the course of this piece details why I say so.
Invariably, the self styled largest political party in Africa is gradually losing grip of its stronghold of power in a country it has steered its ship of governance for 14 years.
The outcome of its Special National Convention held in Abuja at the weekend where seven governors, some ex governors, some senators and House of Representative members on its platform announced their break away from the PDP is not a good story. It is a tale that has deteriorated from bad to worse for the party. Some say it is time for diminishing returns for the PDP- a party once feared and dreaded for its sinous political tentacles in the polity.
But that fear of the might and size of the PDP is evaporating and it is doing so at a rapid pace. For those who say the party will rule forever, present political developments might compel to recant their words.
Before the latest development in the PDP, we heard tales of ongoing political altercations between some governors and President Goodluck Jonathan. The bone of contention is the 2015 presidential election. The aggrieved governors fear that Jonathan may contest the presidential polls, thus negating the one term agreement they claimed he allegedly entered into with the North.
Before last Saturday’s development in the PDP, the All Progressive Congress, a merger of three major political parties namely the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), the Congress For Progressive Change (CPC),factions of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) came on board.
Another political Movement, the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) oiled by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Voice of the People (VOP) were registered as political parties by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
There are also reports that the aggrieved PDP governors will collapse into the PDM or newly registered Voice of the People (VOP) or even the APC. Indeed, the coming of the APC , a party which has 11 state governors and the break away of faction of the PDP which has seven governors portends far reaching political implications for Igbos whose political fortress has been the PDP.
Since the advent of the PDP in 1999, there has been concerns that the party has not done much for Igbos, Imo State inclusive.
The seat of power- the presidency- has not been within the grasp of Igbos in the PDP. For 14 years the PDP has been in power, there are firmly held convictions that the party either by omission or commission, has not availed its platform to Igbos to produce either the President or Vice.
Anti PDP proponents in the South East have cause to believe so. They contend that the party rather made a caricature of its eminent sons when it availed its national chairmanship seat of the party to its sons. From Vincent Ogbulafor who was accused of trump charges of corruption and kicked out of office to Okwesilize Nwodo, who was disgraced on the floor of the party’s national convention, a good percentage of non PDP followers in the region contend in strong terms that Igbos have not had it rosy in the ruling party.
They cite the office of the senate president as a casetudy of their ordeal in PDP. According to them, then President Olusegun Obasanjo used the senate presidency to politically dehumanise the Igbo by introducing political cat and mouse brand of politicking amongst Igbo senators in the then senate that made nonsense of Igbo led senate presidency between 1999-2003.
This led to political distrust , disaffection and consumed the senate presidency of our dear own late Evan Enwerem, late Chuba Okadigbo, Adolphus Wabara, and later Anyim Pius Anyim within a period of four years which ought to be the tenure of one senate president. That act portrayed Igbos as bunch of unserious lot incapable of managing leadership positions.
While the elevation of another Igbo, Ike Ekweremadu to the position of the deputy senate president in the present dispensation can be described as a pacifying move by the PDP for the Igbos, the same cannot be said of the emergence of of Imo State born Rt Hon Emeka Ihedioha as Deputy Speaker of the House ofRepresentives.
Ihedioha’s ascendancy cannot be seen or said to be the wish and desire of the PDP for Igbos.Those coversant with the political undercurrents and dynamics that led to the emergence of Ihedioha as Deputy Speaker of the House will easily remember how he was not the choice of the leadership of the PDP for the position.
The PDP hierachy had zoned the offices of the Speaker and the Deputy speaker of the House to the South West and the North respectively, thus leaving the South East without any serious position. It took sheer political ruggedity on the part of Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, Ihedioha and co to alter the zoning arrangement of the PDP bigwigs.
Based on these political circumstances, Imo State Governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha has latched on these political annihilaition of Igbos in the PDP to continously trumpet on the inherent political gains for the Igbo nation it they shift political allegiance from the PDP to the APC.
In his sermon against the PDP, Okorocha has consistently echeod that only the APC offer the Igbos the platform to the presidency in the near future. Is Okorocha right or simply cooking up political semantics just to drag Igbos to the APC?
The pertinent question is- which of the two major political parties, the APC and PDP really offer Igbos the platform to either produce the President between now and 2030. 2015 is ruled off for the Igbos, except the APC conceeds at least the Vice Presidential slot to the region, which is doubtful considering the political polemics that shaped the merger that gave birth to the APC.
And with the emergence of the new PDP, which may collapse into the PDM or the Voice of the People (VOP), where do these latest political developments place the Igbo nation?
Does the PDP still remain the right platfom For Igbos? Or is the APC platform better? And what is the stake of Igbos in the new PDP assuming the aggrieved PDP members empty into a new political party?. These are issues and hard questions that require answers. I will be as fair as I can in my analysis.
Lets get down with the political arimethic and the variables. If the PDP fields Jonathan and Namadi Sambo as Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates in 2015, what does such ticket portend for the Igbos? If the ticket sail through and Jonathan wins, does it not imply power will return to the North in 2019 after Jonathan must have done eight years? And if Jonathan decides to handover power to the North in 2019, (That is if he still believes that power should rotate between the North and South) it then implies the Igbo may get the presidency on the PDP platform in 2027 after the expiration of a Northern Presidency. Is this certain, that is if the South West does not stake a claim to the presidency after 2027?.
For the APC, though its zoning formula remains a secret, but if as expected it conceeds the presidency to the North, the South West gets the Vice Presidential seat and the South East produces the national chairman in 2015, does it provide ample opportunity for the Igbo to produce a president in 2019 or 2023?(after the completion of an eight year northern presidency).
Again, is 2023 guaranteed for the Igbos considering the fact the South West which is a dominant ethnic group in the party will not agitate for power after an APC Northern Presidency?
Since Igbos have weak political bargaining powers in both national parties, what should be paramount in the minds of Igbos is, which of the platforms will actualize the presidency early enough. By implication, Igbo presidency in PDP is only realisable in 2027, while it may come to pass in APC 2023 nothwithstanding likely agitation by the South West for another shot at power at that time.
These variables should serve as a guiding factor for the Igbo nation to locate its place in the unfolding and emerging political scenario in the country. It is not enough for baseless political sentiments to be bandied about by the PDP and the APC just to hoodwink the Igbos to support its cause.
Igbo leaders should study the political terrain especially the voting patterns that may influence the outcome of the elections in 2015 and decide which national political platform suits its aspiration. A projection of the voting patterns in 2015 can as well serve as a guide for Igbos to really identify the platform that will enable it align to its political thought process.
With the move of most of the North West Governors (Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger) out of the mainstream PDP, (Zamfara is an APC State), it entails that the PDP might loose huge chunk of votes considering the fact that the region has remained the highest voting population in the last three general elections in the country.
And if General Muhammdu Buhari, who has a cult like personality in addition to overwhelming popularity in the North ( he won in 12 States in the North when he vied for the presidency in 2011 with the defunct CPC flag) picks the APC presidential flag as expected, the collateral effect might spill over to Muslim PDP controlled States such as Adamawa State where Governor Nyako has an axe with President Jonathan. Already, the APC holds sway in North East such as Borno and Yobe States which are predominantly Muslim States.
Matters can be compounded for the PDP if the break away governors eventually go into an alliance with the APC in the interest of the Northern agenda. If this scenario plays out, States such as Jigawa, Kano and Kwara might swing against the PDP considering the fact the governors of these States have broken away from the party. The PDP and pro Jonathan adherents will be left with Northern Christian States such as Plateau and Benue States. Already, Nassarwa State is in the kitty of the APC.
Down south, the South west is expected to swing to the APC unless the political stature of Bola Tinubu wanes between now and 2015. This does not look realistic in the foreseeable future.
The South South is considered PDP’s stronghold considering the fact it is President Jonathan’s homebase. However, It is 50-50 since two states, Rivers and Edo are no longer in firm grip of the mainstream PDP. Edo is an APC State, while Rivers State remains contentious between Governor Rotimi Amaechi and pro Jonathan elements bent on wrestling power from the governor.
In Igboland, what is the voting pattern. We have a history of resorting to strange voting. We should align our votes with any of the parties that has the propensity to make Igbo presidency feasible at least in the next 5-8 years. Our voting pattern determines how close or far our collective desire gets to us. If one door closes, another opens. We should take advantage of the emerging balance of power in the country. The choice is ours.
